Thursday, 7 May 2009

increased volume

Only a few days after my last post and I'm posting again! Somethings surely wrong! :)

Just a bit bored actually and having wasted nearly my entire trading bankroll on Betfair and my software having now expired, i decided to take a few days off from trading and revert back to what i know best... poker.

$44 profit from a few sngs on the 1st
$68 profit from a few more sngs on the 2nd
$130 profit from a PLO mtt 6th out of 405 on the 3rd
should've done better but went card dead on the final table and got it all in on the turn with the nuts against the same hand only he had a flush draw too which naturally hit on the river to send me home in 6th which was a little cruel. I'm happy to be final tabling again and oddly doing so in plo!
$80 profit from some HU and 6max PLO cash games on the 4th

had a night out on the 5th and then not played again tonight as haven't been in the right mind set but I'm pleased to be able to report 4 days of straight profits and +$321 running total from May so far...

Just waiting for the negative variance to kick in and send me running back to the trading software now. haha I'll keep whoever may possibly read this updated :)

Saturday, 2 May 2009


So... Its been over a month since i last posted and the main reason is that i haven't exactly played much! Aprils total is +$104.67 most of that is from once tourney win in a $5 mixed PLO/PLHE tourney on Full Tilt... I think its been my quietest month poker wise for the past couple of years.
A couple of reasons being i simply haven't had the drive to play and as a result, haven't been playing well when i do so I'm only playing when i feel like it and have the drive to win and not just get bored and donk out an hour in...

The other reason is I've found another type of potentially +EV betting in the shape of betting market trading on betfair using some software i bought called bet angel...

Inspired by this blog which Ive been reading - i decided to give it a shot seeing as i never used my small poker bankroll on betfair. I could definitely see the potential to make good profits from trading however it's been a pretty steep learning curve and I've made quite a few mistakes which have far outweighed my profits but i see as an education and an education isn't cheap... Its the best way for me to learn though.

I feel good about my trading and potential. i just keep making some very costly errors. For example, i noticed a trend on a horse in one race where i thought the price was about to drift so intended to lay it and then back it after the price had drifted to give me my net profit... instead i unknowingly jumped on at the correct time and off at the perfect time only show a loss. it took me a few secs to work out why but I'd only gone and clicked the wrong side of the ladder and backed the horse before it drifted and then layed it after!

I kept struggling with some of the bigger odds horses with my small bankroll so took £100 out of my Cake poker bankroll and put it on betfair to trade and learn with which was going fine.

I lost about £20 on the F1 as made the mistake of chasing the odds which never came back and also a similar loss on a horse race where i let it go in play (a habit I'm slowly getting out of now which is good). I know its not +EV to let the races go in play.

Today has been quite sweet but also VERY sour. I decided to trade the Rome semi final game (which is actually still on and a very good match!) Federer v Djokovic... Tennis is awesome for trading and usually quite profitable even for me, especially a closely matched game like this! I usually end up a few £ up trading with about £50 or so which is OK however i was about £18 after the first set which felt good as i was trading well and playing it safe. I could finally see myself making strides forward and becoming profitable! Then there was a rain delay so i took some time away from the PC and came back... still no play so decided to have a look at the horse races. Made a few mistakes in the first race jumping on the price movements at the wrong end every time but managed to salvage a £1 loss then next race i was quickly a few £ up only to then throw it away again and end up a few pence in profit. THEN came the disaster race...

Goodwood 14.55, i clicked on the next race after trading punchestown thinking i had about 10 mins till the off and immediately noticed a lot of price movement on the favourite so i tried to back it. Being low odds it used up almost my entire bankroll trying to back it then i thought I'd missed it and then while trying to check, Bet angel decided to freeze for about a minute so i couldn't do anything. When it came back on i suddenly realised what had happened!

I'd not noticed that the Punchestown race and Goodwood had both started at the same time so i had basically opened my trade on the favourite while it was in play! The fact it had then frozen meant by the time i could do anything the race had finished and of course my mistake punished hard as the favourite came in 3rd and ive had to wave good bye to my £150!

My new Betfair bank balance stands at £15.99

I don't really want to put money back in, especially if I'm going to make stupid rushed trades like that and blow the lot so am not really sure what to do now. I feel frustrated as its not as if Ive lost it from making bad trades. It was just me being blind and jumping in as i was starting to get a bit too confident with it!

Horse Racing: -GBP231.74 Ice Hockey: -GBP4.97 Motor Sport: -GBP19.12 Rugby Union: -GBP10.00 Tennis: -GBP9.76 Total P&L: -GBP275.59

so far from profitable for me atm.... lol the motor sport loss was from chasing as Ive already said so was basically a punt rather than trading, the rugby was a bet on the 6 nations on wales.. the tennis should be in profit but it doesn't include today's profits, i lost £19 on one game, again chasing odds, i don't even remember the hockey bet but it would've been a punt rather than trading as the ice hockey markets don't have much liquidity.
The horse racing losses are largely from trading so admittedly i need to improve but as i say, £150 of that is from today so i don't class £81 as a bad price to pay if i can be profitable from now on.

I think it'll take me a few more months of trading before i can be consistently profitable from it and if I'm not making money by the end of the summer I'll just leave it as its eating into my poker profits...

I'm going to shut up my ramblings now and just enjoy the rest of this tennis match without the stress of trading it!

If anyone reads this and is interested in trading or currently trades please drop me a message as i could do with someone to talk over trades with, just like in poker. It should be mutually beneficial :)